Leyton and Wanstead
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 19.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Reform UK | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leyton and Wanstead | 39.5% | 19.6% | 13.1% | 11.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+15.3 | 10.4%+9.2 | 23.1%−10.0 | 20.4%−9.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,828 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 70.9% |
Current member
Mr Calvin Bailey · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 31.9 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 19.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Calvin Bailey Elected | Labour | 20,755 | 47.5 |
| Charlotte Lafferty | Green | 6,791 | 15.5 |
| Gloria Croxall | Conservative | 4,846 | 11.1 |
| Shanell Johnson | Other | 4,173 | 9.5 |
| Tara Copeland | Lib Dems | 2,815 | 6.4 |
| David Sandground | Reform UK | 2,475 | 5.7 |
| Mahtab Aziz | Other | 1,633 | 3.7 |
| Simon Bezer | Other | 244 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Stratford and Bow Labour, safe seat
- East Ham Labour, safe seat
- Ilford North Labour, toss-up
- Walthamstow Labour, safe seat
- Ilford South Labour, safe seat
- Chingford and Woodford Green Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated