Edmonton and Winchmore Hill
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 22.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Edmonton and Winchmore Hill | 40.3% | 17.5% | 16.4% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+16.0 | 20.4%−2.9 | 23.1%−6.6 | 10.4%+2.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 125,161 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 76.4% |
Current member
Kate Osamor · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 30.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 22.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kate Osamor Elected | Labour | 20,520 | 50.0 |
| Zoe Huggins | Conservative | 7,888 | 19.2 |
| Luke Balnave | Green | 3,681 | 9.0 |
| Neville Watson | Reform UK | 3,501 | 8.5 |
| Tim Martin | Lib Dems | 2,721 | 6.6 |
| Khalid Sadur | Other | 1,700 | 4.1 |
| Denise Headley | Other | 668 | 1.6 |
| Yemi Awolola | Other | 366 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Enfield North Labour, safe seat
- Tottenham Labour, safe seat
- Southgate and Wood Green Labour, safe seat
- Walthamstow Labour, safe seat
- Hackney North and Stoke Newington Labour, safe seat
- Hornsey and Friern Barnet Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated