Milton Keynes Central
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 22%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Milton Keynes Central | 31.4% | 24.6% | 21.3% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+7.2 | 20.4%+4.2 | 23.1%−1.7 | 10.4% |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,171 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 82.2% |
Current member
Emily Darlington · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emily Darlington Elected | Labour | 20,209 | 42.3 |
| Johnny Luk | Conservative | 12,918 | 27.1 |
| David Reilly | Reform UK | 6,245 | 13.1 |
| James Cox | Lib Dems | 4,931 | 10.3 |
| Frances Bonney | Green | 3,226 | 6.8 |
| Alfred Saint-Clair | Other | 200 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Milton Keynes North Labour, toss-up
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Aylesbury Conservative, toss-up
- Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative, toss-up
- Mid Bedfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated