Aylesbury
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 88%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Aylesbury | 25.5% | 22.6% | 20.1% | 18.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+5.1 | 23.1%−0.4 | 24.3%−4.2 | 10.3%+8.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 111,020 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 79.8% |
Current member
Laura Kyrke-Smith · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 1.3 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Laura Kyrke-Smith Elected | Labour | 15,081 | 30.2 |
| Rob Butler | Conservative | 14,451 | 28.9 |
| Steve Lambert | Lib Dems | 10,440 | 20.9 |
| Lesley Taylor | Reform UK | 6,746 | 13.5 |
| Julie Atkins | Green | 2,590 | 5.2 |
| Jan Gajdos | Other | 516 | 1.0 |
| Richard Wilding | Other | 116 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dunstable and Leighton Buzzard Conservative, toss-up
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, competitive
- Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative, safe seat
- Chesham and Amersham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated