Chesham and Amersham
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesham and Amersham | 40.0% | 31.0% | 16.3% | 6.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.7 | 20.4%+10.6 | 23.1%−6.8 | 10.4%−4.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,904 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 78.5% |
Current member
Sarah Green · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 10.0 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 9.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Green Elected | Lib Dems | 24,422 | 44.9 |
| Gareth Williams | Conservative | 18,971 | 34.8 |
| Laurence Jarvis | Reform UK | 5,310 | 9.8 |
| Chris Chilton | Labour | 3,502 | 6.4 |
| Justine Fulford | Green | 1,673 | 3.1 |
| Muhammad Khan | Other | 466 | 0.9 |
| Julian Foster | Other | 111 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beaconsfield Conservative, safe seat
- Hemel Hempstead Reform UK, toss-up
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Slough Labour, toss-up
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated