Beaconsfield
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Lib Dems | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Beaconsfield | 36.5% | 24.2% | 19.0% | 9.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+16.1 | 10.3%+13.9 | 23.1%−4.1 | 24.3%−14.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 97,257 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 83.5% |
Current member
Joy Morrissey · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 11.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 12.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Joy Morrissey Elected | Conservative | 18,494 | 38.8 |
| Anna Crabtree | Lib Dems | 13,039 | 27.3 |
| Matthew Patterson | Labour | 7,216 | 15.1 |
| John Halsall | Reform UK | 6,055 | 12.7 |
| Dominick Pegram | Green | 1,977 | 4.1 |
| Pippa Allen | Other | 710 | 1.5 |
| Catherine Harker | Other | 131 | 0.3 |
| Cole Caesar | Other | 104 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Slough Labour, toss-up
- Chesham and Amersham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Windsor Conservative, safe seat
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
- Uxbridge and South Ruislip Conservative, toss-up
- Hayes and Harlington Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated