Hemel Hempstead
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 84% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.5 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 96%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Labour | Conservative | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hemel Hempstead | 28.1% | 26.0% | 23.4% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+5.0 | 24.3%+1.7 | 20.4%+3.0 | 10.3%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,046 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 90.4% |
Current member
David Taylor · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.0 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 2.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| David Taylor Elected | Labour | 16,844 | 38.2 |
| Andrew Williams | Conservative | 11,987 | 27.2 |
| Noel Willcox | Reform UK | 7,689 | 17.4 |
| Sammy Barry-Mears | Lib Dems | 5,096 | 11.6 |
| Sherief Hassan | Green | 2,492 | 5.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Harpenden and Berkhamsted Lib Dems, safe seat
- South West Hertfordshire Conservative, safe seat
- Chesham and Amersham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Watford Labour, toss-up
- Luton South and South Bedfordshire Labour, toss-up
- Ruislip, Northwood and Pinner Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated