Northampton North
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 33%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Northampton North | 32.9% | 26.7% | 18.8% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.6 | 23.1%+3.6 | 20.4%−1.6 | 10.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 129,612 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 36 |
| Employment rate | 76.8% |
Current member
Lucy Rigby · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 21.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 6.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lucy Rigby Elected | Labour | 18,209 | 43.6 |
| Dan Bennett | Conservative | 9,195 | 22.0 |
| Antony Antoniou | Reform UK | 7,010 | 16.8 |
| Eishar Bassan | Green | 2,558 | 6.1 |
| Christopher Leggett | Lib Dems | 2,251 | 5.4 |
| Khalid Razzaq | Other | 1,531 | 3.7 |
| Paul Clark | Other | 1,059 | 2.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton South Reform UK, toss-up
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
- South Northamptonshire Conservative, safe seat
- Milton Keynes North Labour, toss-up
- Kettering Reform UK, toss-up
- Wellingborough and Rushden Reform UK, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated