Daventry
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 93% chance of winning, with an average lead of 2.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 89%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daventry | 30.7% | 28.0% | 19.9% | 10.4% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+10.3 | 23.1%+5.0 | 24.3%−4.3 | 10.3%+0.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 105,946 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 74.8% |
Current member
Stuart Andrew · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 5.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 2.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Stuart Andrew Elected | Conservative | 17,872 | 33.7 |
| Marianne Kimani | Labour | 14,860 | 28.0 |
| Scott Cameron | Reform UK | 10,636 | 20.0 |
| Jonathan Harris | Lib Dems | 6,755 | 12.7 |
| Clare Slater | Green | 2,959 | 5.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton South Reform UK, toss-up
- Northampton North Labour, competitive
- South Northamptonshire Conservative, safe seat
- Harborough, Oadby and Wigston Conservative, safe seat
- South Leicestershire Conservative, toss-up
- Kettering Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated