South Northamptonshire
Westminster constituency · England · East Midlands
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Northamptonshire | 33.4% | 24.2% | 20.1% | 9.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+13.0 | 23.1%+1.2 | 24.3%−4.2 | 10.4%−1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,140 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 44 |
| Employment rate | 84.6% |
Current member
Sarah Bool · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.9 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Bool Elected | Conservative | 19,191 | 35.7 |
| Rufia Ashraf | Labour | 15,504 | 28.9 |
| Paul Hogan | Reform UK | 8,962 | 16.7 |
| Stewart Tolley | Lib Dems | 4,989 | 9.3 |
| Emmie Williamson | Green | 3,040 | 5.7 |
| Ian McCord | Other | 1,556 | 2.9 |
| Mick Stott | Other | 246 | 0.5 |
| Stuart Robert | Other | 209 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Northampton South Reform UK, toss-up
- Daventry Conservative, toss-up
- Buckingham and Bletchley Conservative, toss-up
- Northampton North Labour, competitive
- Milton Keynes North Labour, toss-up
- Milton Keynes Central Labour, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated