Wycombe
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 4.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 57%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Other | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wycombe | 28.5% | 23.6% | 19.2% | 10.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+4.2 | 20.4%+3.2 | 23.1%−3.9 | 5.0%+5.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 107,635 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 85.7% |
Current member
Emma Reynolds · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 10.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 4.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Emma Reynolds Elected | Labour | 16,035 | 35.9 |
| Steve Baker | Conservative | 11,444 | 25.6 |
| Richard Phoenix | Reform UK | 4,769 | 10.7 |
| Toni Brodelle | Lib Dems | 4,236 | 9.5 |
| Khalil Ahmed | Other | 3,344 | 7.5 |
| Catherine Bunting | Green | 2,193 | 4.9 |
| Ajaz Rehman | Other | 1,913 | 4.3 |
| Ed Gemmell | Other | 489 | 1.1 |
| Mark Smallwood | Other | 214 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maidenhead Lib Dems, safe seat
- Mid Buckinghamshire Conservative, safe seat
- Wokingham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reading Central Labour, safe seat
- Earley and Woodley Conservative, toss-up
- Henley and Thame Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated