North West Hampshire
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.9 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| North West Hampshire | 32.0% | 23.0% | 20.1% | 13.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+11.6 | 23.1%−0.1 | 24.3%−4.2 | 10.3%+2.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 109,893 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 76.8% |
Current member
Kit Malthouse · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.5 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 8.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Kit Malthouse Elected | Conservative | 17,770 | 35.0 |
| Andy Fitchet | Labour | 14,482 | 28.5 |
| Andy Meacham | Reform UK | 7,734 | 15.2 |
| Luigi Gregori | Lib Dems | 7,626 | 15.0 |
| Hina West | Green | 2,745 | 5.4 |
| Phil Heath | Other | 466 | 0.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Newbury Lib Dems, competitive
- Basingstoke Labour, toss-up
- Reading West and Mid Berkshire Conservative, toss-up
- Winchester Lib Dems, safe seat
- Eastleigh Lib Dems, toss-up
- Didcot and Wantage Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated