Kingston and Surbiton
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 33.1 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kingston and Surbiton | 48.6% | 14.8% | 14.7% | 9.1% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+38.4 | 23.1%−8.3 | 20.4%−5.7 | 24.3%−15.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 115,224 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 82.6% |
Current member
Ed Davey · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 34.0 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 33.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ed Davey Elected | Lib Dems | 25,870 | 51.1 |
| Helen Edward | Conservative | 8,635 | 17.0 |
| Eunice O'Dame | Labour | 6,561 | 12.9 |
| Mark Fox | Reform UK | 4,787 | 9.4 |
| Debojyoti Das | Green | 3,009 | 5.9 |
| Yvonne Tracey | Other | 1,177 | 2.3 |
| Ali Abdulla | Other | 395 | 0.8 |
| A.Gent Chinners | Other | 230 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
- Twickenham Lib Dems, safe seat
- Wimbledon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Sutton and Cheam Lib Dems, safe seat
- Brentford and Isleworth Labour, safe seat
- Esher and Walton Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated