Mitcham and Morden
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 28.5 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Green | Conservative | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mitcham and Morden | 45.2% | 16.7% | 13.3% | 13.2% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+21.0 | 23.1%−6.4 | 10.4%+2.9 | 20.4%−7.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 123,572 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 79.5% |
Current member
Dame Siobhain McDonagh · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 41.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 28.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Siobhain McDonagh Elected | Labour | 25,085 | 55.4 |
| Ellie Cox | Conservative | 6,324 | 14.0 |
| Pippa Maslin | Green | 4,635 | 10.2 |
| Ruth Price | Reform UK | 4,135 | 9.1 |
| Jenifer Gould | Lib Dems | 3,622 | 8.0 |
| Mehmood Jamshed | Other | 1,091 | 2.4 |
| Desmond Coke | Other | 363 | 0.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tooting Labour, safe seat
- Wimbledon Lib Dems, safe seat
- Sutton and Cheam Lib Dems, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Putney Labour, safe seat
- Battersea Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated