Croydon West
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Green | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croydon West | 42.5% | 16.1% | 14.3% | 13.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+18.2 | 20.4%−4.3 | 10.4%+3.9 | 23.1%−9.3 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 123,850 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 34 |
| Employment rate | 76.1% |
Current member
Sarah Jones · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 37.3 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 26.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sarah Jones Elected | Labour | 20,612 | 54.1 |
| Simon Fox | Conservative | 6,386 | 16.8 |
| Ria Patel | Green | 3,851 | 10.1 |
| Jahir Hussain | Lib Dems | 3,667 | 9.6 |
| Vinayak Malhotra | Reform UK | 2,148 | 5.6 |
| Ahsan Ullah | Other | 708 | 1.9 |
| Donna Murray-Turner | Other | 503 | 1.3 |
| April Ashley | Other | 247 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Streatham and Croydon North Labour, safe seat
- Croydon South Conservative, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Croydon East Labour, safe seat
- Dulwich and West Norwood Labour, safe seat
- Beckenham and Penge Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated