Croydon South
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 12.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Labour | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croydon South | 38.7% | 25.9% | 15.7% | 8.8% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+18.3 | 24.3%+1.6 | 23.1%−7.3 | 10.4%−1.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 101,671 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 81.8% |
Current member
Chris Philp · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 4.7 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 12.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Philp Elected | Conservative | 19,757 | 40.0 |
| Ben Taylor | Labour | 17,444 | 35.3 |
| Richard Howard | Lib Dems | 4,384 | 8.9 |
| Bob Bromley | Reform UK | 4,149 | 8.4 |
| Elaine Garrod | Green | 2,859 | 5.8 |
| Kulsum Hussin | Other | 612 | 1.2 |
| Mark Samuel | Other | 173 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Croydon West Labour, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Croydon East Labour, safe seat
- Streatham and Croydon North Labour, safe seat
- Beckenham and Penge Labour, safe seat
- East Surrey Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated