Croydon East
Westminster constituency · England · London
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 4%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Croydon East | 32.9% | 24.3% | 20.7% | 12.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+8.6 | 20.4%+3.9 | 23.1%−2.3 | 10.4%+2.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 108,869 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 39 |
| Employment rate | 68.9% |
Current member
Natasha Irons · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 15.6 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 8.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Natasha Irons Elected | Labour | 18,541 | 42.4 |
| Jason Cummings | Conservative | 11,716 | 26.8 |
| Scott Holman | Reform UK | 5,862 | 13.4 |
| Peter Underwood | Green | 4,097 | 9.4 |
| Andrew Pelling | Lib Dems | 3,563 | 8.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Beckenham and Penge Labour, safe seat
- Croydon South Conservative, safe seat
- Croydon West Labour, safe seat
- Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative, safe seat
- Streatham and Croydon North Labour, safe seat
- Lewisham West and East Dulwich Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated