East Surrey
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 9.2 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 1%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Lib Dems | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| East Surrey | 33.2% | 24.0% | 15.8% | 13.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+12.8 | 23.1%+0.9 | 10.3%+5.5 | 24.3%−10.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,251 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 78.2% |
Current member
Claire Coutinho · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 15.1 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 9.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Claire Coutinho Elected | Conservative | 17,502 | 35.6 |
| Thomas Bowell | Labour | 10,052 | 20.4 |
| Claire Malcomson | Lib Dems | 8,833 | 18.0 |
| Chris Scott | Reform UK | 8,380 | 17.0 |
| Shasha Khan | Green | 2,957 | 6.0 |
| Judy Moore | Other | 1,145 | 2.3 |
| Martin Hogbin | Other | 327 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Croydon South Conservative, safe seat
- Croydon East Labour, safe seat
- Reigate Conservative, safe seat
- Croydon West Labour, safe seat
- Carshalton and Wallington Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bromley and Biggin Hill Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated