Crawley
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.6 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 97%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley | 27.2% | 26.7% | 23.8% | 9.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+2.9 | 23.1%+3.7 | 20.4%+3.4 | 10.4%−0.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 119,509 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 37 |
| Employment rate | 78.5% |
Current member
Peter Lamb · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 11.5 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 1.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Peter Lamb Elected | Labour | 17,453 | 38.2 |
| Zack Ali | Conservative | 12,218 | 26.8 |
| Tim Charters | Reform UK | 8,447 | 18.5 |
| Iain Dickson | Green | 2,621 | 5.7 |
| Linda Bamieh | Other | 2,407 | 5.3 |
| Lee Gibbs | Lib Dems | 2,205 | 4.8 |
| Robin Burnham | Other | 153 | 0.3 |
| Dan Weir | Other | 138 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Dorking and Horley Lib Dems, safe seat
- Reigate Conservative, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
- Horsham Lib Dems, toss-up
- East Surrey Conservative, safe seat
- Epsom and Ewell Lib Dems, competitive
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated