Mid Sussex
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 13.3 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mid Sussex | 36.6% | 23.3% | 19.4% | 11.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+26.3 | 20.4%+2.9 | 23.1%−3.7 | 24.3%−12.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,553 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 79.1% |
Current member
Alison Bennett · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 12.5 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 13.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Alison Bennett Elected | Lib Dems | 21,136 | 39.6 |
| Kristy Adams | Conservative | 14,474 | 27.1 |
| David Rowntree | Labour | 9,397 | 17.6 |
| Gary Johnson | Reform UK | 5,921 | 11.1 |
| Deanna Nicholson | Green | 2,048 | 3.8 |
| Baron Von Thunderclap | Other | 352 | 0.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Crawley Labour, toss-up
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated