Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Labour a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 11.6 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Labour | Green | Conservative | Reform UK | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven | 34.9% | 23.3% | 16.7% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 24.3%+10.7 | 10.4%+12.9 | 20.4%−3.7 | 23.1%−11.6 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 96,034 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 40 |
| Employment rate | 69.6% |
Current member
Chris Ward · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 23.8 points.
Our current projection: Labour ahead by 11.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Ward Elected | Labour | 17,893 | 44.0 |
| Khobi Vallis | Conservative | 8,230 | 20.2 |
| Elaine Hills | Green | 7,997 | 19.7 |
| Stewart Stone | Lib Dems | 3,949 | 9.7 |
| Emma Wall | Other | 1,833 | 4.5 |
| Valerie Gray | Other | 784 | 1.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- East Worthing and Shoreham Labour, competitive
- Lewes Lib Dems, safe seat
- Mid Sussex Lib Dems, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated