Lewes
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lewes | 45.5% | 21.9% | 20.1% | 6.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+35.2 | 20.4%+1.5 | 23.1%−2.9 | 10.4%−3.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,752 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 50 |
| Employment rate | 79.1% |
Current member
James MacCleary · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 23.7 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 23.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James MacCleary Elected | Lib Dems | 26,895 | 50.6 |
| Maria Caulfield | Conservative | 14,271 | 26.8 |
| Bernard Brown | Reform UK | 6,335 | 11.9 |
| Danny Sweeney | Labour | 3,574 | 6.7 |
| Paul Keene | Green | 1,869 | 3.5 |
| Rowena Easton | Other | 229 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
- Brighton Pavilion Green, safe seat
- Eastbourne Lib Dems, safe seat
- Hove and Portslade Labour, safe seat
- Sussex Weald Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated