Eastbourne
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.0 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Reform UK | Conservative | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eastbourne | 47.8% | 21.6% | 19.8% | 5.6% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+37.5 | 23.1%−1.5 | 20.4%−0.6 | 10.4%−4.8 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 102,247 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 45 |
| Employment rate | 71.2% |
Current member
Josh Babarinde · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 26.8 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 26.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Babarinde Elected | Lib Dems | 23,742 | 52.1 |
| Caroline Ansell | Conservative | 11,538 | 25.3 |
| Mark Ashdown | Reform UK | 6,061 | 13.3 |
| Paul Richards | Labour | 2,689 | 5.9 |
| Mike Munson | Green | 1,421 | 3.1 |
| Ian Garbutt | Other | 154 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Sussex Weald Conservative, toss-up
- Lewes Lib Dems, safe seat
- Bexhill and Battle Conservative, toss-up
- East Grinstead and Uckfield Conservative, safe seat
- Tunbridge Wells Lib Dems, safe seat
- Brighton Kemptown and Peacehaven Labour, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated