Tunbridge Wells
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Lib Dems a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Lib Dems | Conservative | Reform UK | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tunbridge Wells | 39.5% | 24.1% | 18.9% | 7.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 10.3%+29.2 | 20.4%+3.6 | 23.1%−4.2 | 10.4%−2.9 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,058 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 43 |
| Employment rate | 74.2% |
Current member
Mike Martin · Lib Dems
Previous election (2024)
The Lib Dems won by 16.0 points.
Our current projection: the Lib Dems ahead by 15.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mike Martin Elected | Lib Dems | 23,661 | 43.6 |
| Neil Mahapatra | Conservative | 14,974 | 27.6 |
| John Gager | Reform UK | 6,484 | 12.0 |
| Hugo Pound | Labour | 6,178 | 11.4 |
| John Hurst | Green | 2,344 | 4.3 |
| Hassan Kassem | Other | 609 | 1.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Tonbridge Conservative, safe seat
- Bexhill and Battle Conservative, toss-up
- Sussex Weald Conservative, toss-up
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated