Chatham and Aylesford
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 8.8 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 2%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chatham and Aylesford | 33.9% | 24.9% | 21.7% | 10.0% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+10.8 | 20.4%+4.5 | 24.3%−2.5 | 10.4%−0.4 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 106,459 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 78.2% |
Current member
Tristan Osborne · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 4.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 8.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tristan Osborne Elected | Labour | 13,689 | 33.5 |
| Nathan Gamester | Conservative | 11,691 | 28.6 |
| Thomas Mallon | Reform UK | 9,989 | 24.5 |
| Kim Winterbottom | Green | 2,504 | 6.1 |
| Nicholas Chan | Lib Dems | 2,175 | 5.3 |
| Matt Valentine | Other | 340 | 0.8 |
| Adedotun Ogundemuren | Other | 316 | 0.8 |
| Steve Tanner | Other | 141 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Gravesham Reform UK, toss-up
- Rochester and Strood Reform UK, competitive
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
- Tonbridge Conservative, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated