Rochester and Strood
Westminster constituency · England · South East
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 6.4 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 23%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochester and Strood | 32.7% | 26.1% | 23.8% | 9.7% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+9.6 | 20.4%+5.6 | 24.3%−0.5 | 10.4%−0.7 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 104,811 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 38 |
| Employment rate | 81.5% |
Current member
Lauren Edwards · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 6.9 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 6.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lauren Edwards Elected | Labour | 15,403 | 36.2 |
| Kelly Tolhurst | Conservative | 12,473 | 29.3 |
| Daniel Dabin | Reform UK | 9,966 | 23.4 |
| Cat Jamieson | Green | 2,427 | 5.7 |
| Graham Colley | Lib Dems | 1,894 | 4.5 |
| John Innes | Other | 245 | 0.6 |
| Peter Burch | Other | 190 | 0.5 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Gillingham and Rainham Reform UK, toss-up
- Castle Point Reform UK, toss-up
- Maidstone and Malling Conservative, toss-up
- Chatham and Aylesford Reform UK, safe seat
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
- South Basildon and East Thurrock Reform UK, safe seat
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated