Harwich and North Essex
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Harwich and North Essex | 30.3% | 30.2% | 21.7% | 9.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.9 | 23.1%+7.2 | 24.3%−2.6 | 10.4%−1.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 99,425 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 71.4% |
Current member
Sir Bernard Jenkin · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 2.4 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bernard Jenkin Elected | Conservative | 16,522 | 34.4 |
| Alex Diner | Labour | 15,360 | 32.0 |
| Mark Cole | Reform UK | 9,806 | 20.4 |
| Natalie Sommers | Lib Dems | 3,561 | 7.4 |
| Andrew Canessa | Green | 2,794 | 5.8 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
- Clacton Reform UK, safe seat
- Southend East and Rochford Reform UK, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
- Southend West and Leigh Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated