Clacton
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 26.7 points.
Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Clacton | 51.1% | 24.4% | 9.5% | 7.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+28.0 | 20.4%+4.0 | 24.3%−14.7 | 10.4%−3.1 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 100,045 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 53 |
| Employment rate | 65.6% |
Current member
Nigel Farage · Reform UK
Previous election (2024)
Reform UK won by 18.3 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 26.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nigel Farage Elected | Reform UK | 21,225 | 46.2 |
| Giles Watling | Conservative | 12,820 | 27.9 |
| Jovan Owusu-Nepaul | Labour | 7,448 | 16.2 |
| Matthew Bensilum | Lib Dems | 2,016 | 4.4 |
| Natasha Osben | Green | 1,935 | 4.2 |
| Tony Mack | Other | 317 | 0.7 |
| Andrew Pemberton | Other | 116 | 0.3 |
| Craig Jamieson | Other | 48 | 0.1 |
| Tasos Papanastasiou | Other | 33 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Southend East and Rochford Reform UK, toss-up
- Witham Conservative, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated