South Suffolk
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 75% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| South Suffolk | 29.5% | 28.2% | 17.4% | 11.5% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+9.0 | 23.1%+5.1 | 24.3%−6.9 | 10.3%+1.2 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 94,277 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 49 |
| Employment rate | 76.5% |
Current member
James Cartlidge · Conservative
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 6.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| James Cartlidge Elected | Conservative | 16,082 | 33.0 |
| Emma Bishton | Labour | 13,035 | 26.7 |
| Beverley England | Reform UK | 9,252 | 19.0 |
| Tom Bartleet | Lib Dems | 6,424 | 13.2 |
| Jessie Carter | Green | 4,008 | 8.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Clacton Reform UK, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
- Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative, toss-up
- Harwich and North Essex Conservative, toss-up
- Suffolk Coastal Reform UK, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated