Central Suffolk and North Ipswich
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives the Conservatives a 72% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.8 points.
Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 98%.
Compared with the average
| Conservative | Reform UK | Labour | Green | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Central Suffolk and North Ipswich | 29.2% | 28.0% | 16.2% | 13.9% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 20.4%+8.8 | 23.1%+5.0 | 24.3%−8.1 | 10.4%+3.5 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 95,100 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 46 |
| Employment rate | 84.1% |
Current member
Patrick Spencer · Independent
Previous election (2024)
The Conservatives won by 9.2 points.
Our current projection: the Conservatives ahead by 1.8 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Spencer Elected | Conservative | 15,144 | 32.6 |
| Kevin Craig | Labour | 10,854 | 23.4 |
| Tony Gould | Reform UK | 8,806 | 19.0 |
| Daniel Pratt | Green | 5,652 | 12.2 |
| Brett Mickelburgh | Lib Dems | 5,407 | 11.6 |
| Charlie Caiger | Other | 366 | 0.8 |
| Mike Hallatt | Other | 194 | 0.4 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Suffolk Coastal Reform UK, toss-up
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
- Bury St Edmunds and Stowmarket Reform UK, toss-up
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated