Suffolk Coastal
Westminster constituency · England · East of England
Forecast of October 15, 2026
Our forecast gives Reform UK a 51% chance of winning, with an average lead of 1.5 points.
Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 99%.
Compared with the average
| Reform UK | Conservative | Labour | Lib Dems | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Suffolk Coastal | 26.1% | 26.0% | 20.5% | 12.3% |
| National averageUnited Kingdom | 23.1%+3.0 | 20.4%+5.6 | 24.3%−3.8 | 10.3%+2.0 |
Simple average of the 650 ridings, not weighted by population.
Local profile
| Population | 93,824 |
|---|---|
| Median age | 52 |
| Employment rate | 79.9% |
Current member
Jenny Riddell-Carpenter · Labour
Previous election (2024)
Labour won by 2.2 points.
Our current projection: Reform UK ahead by 1.5 points.
Candidates and votes in 2024
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jenny Riddell-Carpenter Elected | Labour | 15,672 | 31.7 |
| Thérèse Coffey | Conservative | 14,602 | 29.5 |
| Matthew Jackson | Reform UK | 7,850 | 15.9 |
| Julia Ewart | Lib Dems | 6,947 | 14.0 |
| Julian Cusack | Green | 4,380 | 8.9 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Ipswich Labour, toss-up
- Central Suffolk and North Ipswich Conservative, toss-up
- South Suffolk Conservative, toss-up
- Clacton Reform UK, safe seat
- Waveney Valley Green, safe seat
- Colchester Labour, toss-up
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
- Forecast updated