What we forecast
On the eve of the vote, our forecast gave Parti Quebecois 62 of 127 seats.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Quebecois | 62 | 52–67 | 29% |
| Quebec Liberals | 38 | 33–44 | <1% |
| Conservatives of Quebec | 18 | 15–23 | <1% |
| Quebec Solidaire | 6 | 5–8 | <1% |
| CAQ | 3 | 1–7 | <1% |
64 seats for a majority, out of 127 · 99 polls, 200,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Projected vote share
| Party | Vote | 7-day change | Chance of finishing first |
|---|---|---|---|
| Parti Quebecois | 28.2% | −1.1 pts | 97% |
| Quebec Liberals | 24.1% | +0.8 pts | 4% |
| Conservatives of Quebec | 20.1% | +2.2 pts | <1% |
| Quebec Solidaire | 10.8% | +0.3 pts | <1% |
| CAQ | 15.3% | −2.0 pts | <1% |
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 200,000 simulations of the election.
Riding map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All ridings
All 127 ridings, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Riding | Province | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Papineau | QC | Parti Quebecois | 24.8% | 4.3 pts | 46% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Rivière-du-Loup–Témiscouata–Les Basques | QC | CAQ | 27.4% | 4.7 pts | 41% | Hold |
| Maurice-Richard | QC | Parti Quebecois | 29.9% | 4.9 pts | 37% | Quebec Solidaire → Parti Quebecois |
| Granby | QC | CAQ | 27.7% | 5.1 pts | 54% | Hold |
| Brome-Missisquoi | QC | Parti Quebecois | 26.8% | 5.1 pts | 55% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Champlain | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 28.0% | 5.1 pts | 48% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Daniel-Johnson | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 28.7% | 5.3 pts | 51% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Bellefeuille | QC | CAQ | 25.3% | 5.3 pts | 33% | Hold |
| Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 30.7% | 5.9 pts | 66% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Abitibi-Est | QC | Parti Quebecois | 29.1% | 6.0 pts | 55% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Huntingdon | QC | Quebec Liberals | 26.3% | 6.1 pts | 45% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| La Prairie | QC | Quebec Liberals | 25.9% | 6.2 pts | 44% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Ungava | QC | Quebec Liberals | 29.5% | 6.2 pts | 57% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Mégantic | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 30.4% | 6.3 pts | 54% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Chapleau | QC | Quebec Liberals | 28.8% | 6.3 pts | 73% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Jean-Lesage | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 29.2% | 6.3 pts | 58% | Hold |
| Maskinongé | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.8% | 6.6 pts | 70% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Nicolet-Bécancour | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.6% | 6.6 pts | 58% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Drummond–Bois-Francs | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.2% | 6.6 pts | 69% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Sherbrooke | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.9% | 6.7 pts | 56% | Quebec Solidaire → Parti Quebecois |
| Saint-François | QC | Parti Quebecois | 28.7% | 6.9 pts | 79% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Charlesbourg | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 31.6% | 6.9 pts | 70% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Vachon | QC | Quebec Liberals | 27.1% | 7.1 pts | 47% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Louis-Hébert | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.2% | 7.1 pts | 77% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Vanier-Les Rivières | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 31.5% | 7.3 pts | 76% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.3% | 7.4 pts | 75% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Trois-Rivières | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.1% | 8.0 pts | 76% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Blainville | QC | Parti Quebecois | 30.7% | 8.0 pts | 72% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Charlevoix–Côte-de-Beaupré | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.1% | 8.1 pts | 68% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Richmond | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.1% | 8.4 pts | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Rosemont | QC | Parti Quebecois | 37.5% | 8.4 pts | 77% | Quebec Solidaire → Parti Quebecois |
| Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 37.5% | 8.7 pts | 80% | Hold |
| Groulx | QC | Parti Quebecois | 31.6% | 9.0 pts | 78% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Iberville | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.6% | 9.1 pts | 81% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Orford | QC | Quebec Liberals | 33.8% | 9.4 pts | 75% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Sanguinet | QC | Parti Quebecois | 32.7% | 9.4 pts | 81% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Lévis | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 31.7% | 9.4 pts | 63% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Argenteuil | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.1% | 9.6 pts | 79% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Les Plaines | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.3% | 10.0 pts | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Jean-Talon | QC | Parti Quebecois | 34.0% | 10.1 pts | 89% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Pierre-Laporte | QC | Quebec Liberals | 32.3% | 10.1 pts | 76% | CAQ → Quebec Liberals |
| Mirabel | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.6% | 10.3 pts | 86% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Côte-du-Sud | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 33.4% | 10.5 pts | 68% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| Repentigny | QC | Parti Quebecois | 34.1% | 10.6 pts | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Deux-Montagnes | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.6% | 10.6 pts | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | QC | Conservatives of Quebec | 37.8% | 10.7 pts | 88% | CAQ → Conservatives of Quebec |
| L'Assomption | QC | Parti Quebecois | 34.1% | 10.8 pts | 84% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Rouyn-Noranda–Témiscamingue | QC | Parti Quebecois | 33.9% | 10.9 pts | 91% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |
| Hochelaga-Maisonneuve | QC | Quebec Solidaire | 42.9% | 11.3 pts | 86% | Hold |
| Saint-Hyacinthe | QC | Parti Quebecois | 35.1% | 11.3 pts | 88% | CAQ → Parti Quebecois |