Arthabaska-L’Érable
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Tarek Henoud (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 40.5% of the vote, 7.8 points ahead of Alex Boissonneault (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Tarek Henoud | PCQ | 18,432 | 40.5% |
| Alex Boissonneault | PQ | 14,880 | 32.7% |
| Keven Brasseur | CAQ | 6,047 | 13.3% |
| Thomas Guérette | QLP | 3,431 | 7.5% |
| Stéphanie Poirier | QS | 2,293 | 5.0% |
| Jonathan Croteau | Other | 296 | 0.7% |
| Carol Filion | Other | 80 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Conservatives favoured at 88% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 37.8% | 40.5% | +2.7 |
| PQ | 27.9% | 32.7% | +4.8 |
| CAQ | 17.8% | 13.3% | −4.5 |
| QLP | 11.9% | 7.5% | −4.4 |
| QS | 4.1% | 5.0% | +0.9 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 38% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 28.1% Rank 23 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 38% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +10% 2022: 25.5% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here about as much as across Quebec.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (74.0%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PCQ | PQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arthabaska-L’Érable | 37.8% | 27.9% | 17.8% | 11.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.2%+17.6 | 28.7%−0.8 | 13.9%+3.8 | 24.8%−12.8 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 27.2 points, with 74.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Conservatives ahead by 10.7 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Lefebvre Elected | CAQ | 23,447 | 51.8 |
| Tarek Henoud | PCQ | 11,187 | 24.7 |
| Mario Beauchesne | PQ | 4,538 | 10.0 |
| Pascale Fortin | QS | 4,179 | 9.2 |
| Luciana Arantes | QLP | 1,702 | 3.8 |
| Trystan Martel | Other | 256 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Drummond–Bois-Francs PQ, toss-up
- Lotbinière-Frontenac PCQ, safe seat
- Nicolet-Bécancour PQ, toss-up
- Champlain PCQ, toss-up
- Richmond PQ, competitive
- Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie PCQ, toss-up
- Forecast updated