Nicolet-Bécancour
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Guillaume Langlois (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 41.2% of the vote, 12.4 points ahead of Jérôme Gagnon (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Guillaume Langlois | PCQ | 12,574 | 41.2% |
| Jérôme Gagnon | PQ | 8,788 | 28.8% |
| Donald Martel | CAQ | 4,988 | 16.4% |
| Sophie Martinbeault | QLP | 2,438 | 8.0% |
| Milan Codebecq-Pérusse | QS | 1,364 | 4.5% |
| Marc-Olivier Billette | Other | 216 | 0.7% |
| Christian Collard | Other | 85 | 0.3% |
| Steve Lauzier | Other | 60 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 58% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the Quebec Conservatives won instead.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Guillaume Langlois (PCQ) winning at 61%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 29.9% | 41.2% | +11.4 |
| PQ | 31.6% | 28.8% | −2.8 |
| CAQ | 18.8% | 16.4% | −2.4 |
| QLP | 12.9% | 8.0% | −4.9 |
| QS | 6.5% | 4.5% | −2.0 |
| Other | 0.4% | 1.2% | +0.8 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 32% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 23.1% Rank 66 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 32% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +18% 2022: 19.7% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 27 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (72.6%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | PCQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolet-Bécancour | 31.6% | 29.9% | 18.8% | 12.9% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+2.9 | 20.2%+9.7 | 13.9%+4.9 | 24.8%−11.9 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 24.9 points, with 72.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 6.6 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Donald Martel Elected | CAQ | 13,956 | 47.1 |
| Mario Lyonnais | PCQ | 6,595 | 22.2 |
| Philippe Dumas | PQ | 5,095 | 17.2 |
| Jacques Thériault Watso | QS | 2,610 | 8.8 |
| Marie-Josée Jacques | QLP | 1,406 | 4.7 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Trois-Rivières PQ, toss-up
- Marie-Lacoste-Gérin-Lajoie PCQ, toss-up
- Drummond–Bois-Francs PQ, toss-up
- Champlain PCQ, toss-up
- Arthabaska-L’Érable PCQ, competitive
- Richelieu PQ, safe seat
- Forecast updated