Louis-Hébert
Provincial riding · Quebec · Quebec City
October 5, 2026 result
Marcos Archambault (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 29.0% of the vote, 2.4 points ahead of Chloé Fauchon (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Archambault | PCQ | 11,486 | 29.0% |
| Chloé Fauchon | PQ | 10,554 | 26.7% |
| Richard Bélanger | QLP | 9,012 | 22.8% |
| Marc-Antoine Bernier | CAQ | 5,163 | 13.0% |
| Anne-Sophie Roy | QS | 3,150 | 8.0% |
| Vincent Bégin | Other | 152 | 0.4% |
| Jean-François Grenier | Other | 70 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 77% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the Quebec Conservatives won instead.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Chloé Fauchon (PQ) winning at 77%: it got it wrong. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 25.1% | 29.0% | +3.9 |
| PQ | 31.2% | 26.7% | −4.6 |
| QLP | 19.6% | 22.8% | +3.1 |
| CAQ | 15.0% | 13.0% | −2.0 |
| QS | 8.5% | 8.0% | −0.5 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 47% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 38.4% Rank 1 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 47% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +6% 2022: 36.0% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here less than across Quebec (increase ranked 84 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a weaker-than-expected rise mostly signalled lower overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (81.1%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | PCQ | QLP | CAQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis-Hébert | 31.2% | 25.1% | 19.6% | 15.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+2.5 | 20.2%+4.9 | 24.8%−5.1 | 13.9%+1.1 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 30.7 points, with 81.1% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Geneviève Guilbault Elected | CAQ | 17,803 | 47.2 |
| Victor Dubuc | PQ | 6,228 | 16.5 |
| Marika Robitaille | PCQ | 5,509 | 14.6 |
| Steven Lachance | QS | 4,537 | 12.0 |
| Dominic Cardinal | QLP | 3,283 | 8.7 |
| Daydree Vendette | Other | 285 | 0.8 |
| Jean-Pierre Hamel | Other | 33 | 0.1 |
| Yolaine Brochu | Other | 32 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ, toss-up
- Jean-Talon PQ, competitive
- Chutes-de-la-Chaudière PCQ, competitive
- La Peltrie PCQ, safe seat
- Taschereau PQ, competitive
- Charlesbourg PCQ, toss-up
- Forecast updated