Charlesbourg
Provincial riding · Quebec · Quebec City
October 5, 2026 result
Éloïse Coulombe (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 38.5% of the vote, 12.6 points ahead of Gabriel Coulombe (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Éloïse Coulombe | PCQ | 16,882 | 38.5% |
| Gabriel Coulombe | PQ | 11,337 | 25.9% |
| Seynabou Top | QLP | 5,956 | 13.6% |
| Marie-Josée Morency | CAQ | 5,171 | 11.8% |
| Georges Goma | QS | 4,114 | 9.4% |
| Amelia Alexandrescu | Other | 320 | 0.7% |
| Leopold Toko Simo | Other | 85 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Conservatives favoured at 70% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Éloïse Coulombe (PCQ) winning at 84%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 31.6% | 38.5% | +6.9 |
| PQ | 27.3% | 25.9% | −1.4 |
| QLP | 15.0% | 13.6% | −1.4 |
| CAQ | 16.3% | 11.8% | −4.6 |
| QS | 9.1% | 9.4% | +0.3 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 42% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 31.7% Rank 7 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 42% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +10% 2022: 28.9% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here about as much as across Quebec.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (74.6%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PCQ | PQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charlesbourg | 31.6% | 27.3% | 16.3% | 15.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.2%+11.4 | 28.7%−1.4 | 13.9%+2.4 | 24.8%−9.8 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 24.6 points, with 74.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Conservatives ahead by 6.9 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Jonatan Julien Elected | CAQ | 18,921 | 45.0 |
| Jean Domingue | PCQ | 8,564 | 20.4 |
| Priscilla Corbeil | PQ | 5,967 | 14.2 |
| Ève Duhaime | QS | 5,486 | 13.0 |
| Mahamadou Sissoko | QLP | 2,518 | 6.0 |
| Odevie Essaidi | Other | 348 | 0.8 |
| David Cantin | Other | 163 | 0.4 |
| Daniel Pelletier | Other | 75 | 0.2 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jean-Lesage QS, toss-up
- Vanier-Les Rivières PCQ, toss-up
- Taschereau PQ, competitive
- Jean-Talon PQ, competitive
- Montmorency PCQ, safe seat
- Lévis PCQ, competitive
- Forecast updated