Vanier-Les Rivières
Provincial riding · Quebec · Quebec City
October 5, 2026 result
Patrick Paquet (Conservative Party of Quebec) wins with 37.0% of the vote, 13.1 points ahead of Stéphanie Martin (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Patrick Paquet | PCQ | 16,502 | 37.0% |
| Stéphanie Martin | PQ | 10,650 | 23.9% |
| Charles Hudon | QLP | 7,520 | 16.9% |
| Françoise Faverjon-Fortin | CAQ | 5,727 | 12.8% |
| Karoline Boucher | QS | 3,730 | 8.4% |
| Marjorie Villeneuve | Other | 276 | 0.6% |
| Marjolaine Pépin | Other | 172 | 0.4% |
| Kathia Poliquin | Other | 56 | 0.1% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Conservatives favoured at 76% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Patrick Paquet (PCQ) winning at 85%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PCQ | 31.5% | 37.0% | +5.5 |
| PQ | 25.8% | 23.9% | −1.9 |
| QLP | 15.6% | 16.9% | +1.2 |
| CAQ | 17.6% | 12.8% | −4.8 |
| QS | 8.5% | 8.4% | −0.2 |
| Other | 0.9% | 1.1% | +0.2 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 47% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 34.4% Rank 2 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 47% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +22% 2022: 28.2% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 16 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (73.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PCQ | PQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vanier-Les Rivières | 31.5% | 25.8% | 17.7% | 15.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 20.2%+11.3 | 28.7%−2.9 | 13.9%+3.7 | 24.8%−9.1 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 27.9 points, with 73.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Conservatives ahead by 7.3 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Asselin Elected | CAQ | 20,812 | 47.4 |
| Donald Gagnon | PCQ | 8,572 | 19.5 |
| William Duquette | PQ | 5,741 | 13.1 |
| Karoline Boucher | QS | 5,337 | 12.2 |
| Karl Filion | QLP | 2,760 | 6.3 |
| Mathieu Guillemette | Other | 282 | 0.6 |
| Kadidia Mahamane Bamba | Other | 266 | 0.6 |
| Jean Cloutier | Other | 148 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Jean-Talon PQ, competitive
- Charlesbourg PCQ, toss-up
- Taschereau PQ, competitive
- Jean-Lesage QS, toss-up
- Louis-Hébert PQ, toss-up
- Lévis PCQ, competitive
- Forecast updated