Montarville
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Mathieu Lavoie (Quebec Liberal Party) wins with 29.6% of the vote, 0.8 points ahead of Jean-François Cloutier (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Mathieu Lavoie | QLP | 12,778 | 29.6% |
| Jean-François Cloutier | PQ | 12,437 | 28.9% |
| Nathalie Roy | CAQ | 8,594 | 19.9% |
| Ginette Langlois | QS | 5,044 | 11.7% |
| Marc Rondeau | PCQ | 3,649 | 8.5% |
| Jean-Simon Bellavance | Other | 303 | 0.7% |
| Sylvain Bouchard | Other | 188 | 0.4% |
| Annie St-Jacques | Other | 105 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 86% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the Quebec Liberals won instead.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Jean-François Cloutier (PQ) winning at 86%: it got it wrong. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLP | 22.2% | 29.6% | +7.5 |
| PQ | 35.5% | 28.9% | −6.6 |
| CAQ | 17.1% | 19.9% | +2.9 |
| QS | 11.0% | 11.7% | +0.7 |
| PCQ | 13.4% | 8.5% | −4.9 |
| Other | 0.9% | 1.4% | +0.5 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 39% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 30.6% Rank 9 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 39% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +24% 2022: 24.7% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here more than across Quebec (increase ranked 11 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a stronger-than-expected rise mostly signalled higher overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (78.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | QLP | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Montarville | 35.5% | 22.2% | 17.1% | 13.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+6.7 | 24.8%−2.6 | 13.9%+3.2 | 20.2%−6.8 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 27.2 points, with 78.6% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 12.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nathalie Roy Elected | CAQ | 19,045 | 45.9 |
| Daniel Michelin | PQ | 7,753 | 18.7 |
| Marie-Christine Veilleux | QS | 6,741 | 16.2 |
| Lucie Gagnon | QLP | 5,090 | 12.3 |
| Evans Henry | PCQ | 2,124 | 5.1 |
| Jeanne Dufour | Other | 601 | 1.4 |
| Isadora Lamouche | Other | 134 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Vachon QLP, toss-up
- Verchères PQ, safe seat
- Taillon PQ, safe seat
- Marie-Victorin PQ, safe seat
- La Pinière QLP, safe seat
- Chambly PQ, competitive
- Forecast updated