Vachon
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Affine Lwalalika (Quebec Liberal Party) wins with 27.5% of the vote, 0.0 points ahead of Stephan Fogaing (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Affine Lwalalika | QLP | 10,064 | 27.5% |
| Stephan Fogaing | PQ | 10,050 | 27.5% |
| Ian Lafrenière | CAQ | 7,614 | 20.8% |
| Martine Boucher | PCQ | 4,762 | 13.0% |
| Magdouda Oudjit | QS | 3,807 | 10.4% |
| Martine Lajoie | Other | 262 | 0.7% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Liberals favoured at 47% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLP | 27.1% | 27.5% | +0.4 |
| PQ | 26.5% | 27.5% | +0.9 |
| CAQ | 17.8% | 20.8% | +3.0 |
| PCQ | 17.6% | 13.0% | −4.6 |
| QS | 9.7% | 10.4% | +0.7 |
| Other | 1.2% | 0.7% | −0.5 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 40% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 27.3% Rank 26 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 40% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +8% 2022: 25.4% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here about as much as across Quebec.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (68.4%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| QLP | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vachon | 27.1% | 26.5% | 17.8% | 17.6% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8%+2.3 | 28.7%−2.2 | 13.9%+3.9 | 20.2%−2.6 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 28.8 points, with 68.4% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Liberals ahead by 7.1 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Lafrenière Elected | CAQ | 15,984 | 44.9 |
| Yves Mbattang | QLP | 5,718 | 16.1 |
| Jean-Philippe Samson | QS | 5,343 | 15.0 |
| Adam Wrzesien | PQ | 4,757 | 13.4 |
| Martine Boucher | PCQ | 3,166 | 8.9 |
| Juan Carlos Nino Caita | Other | 404 | 1.1 |
| Jean-Pierre Lacombe | Other | 217 | 0.6 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Montarville PQ, competitive
- La Pinière QLP, safe seat
- Marie-Victorin PQ, safe seat
- Pierre-Laporte QLP, competitive
- Taillon PQ, safe seat
- La Prairie QLP, toss-up
- Forecast updated