La Prairie
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Sonia Ziadé (Quebec Liberal Party) wins with 31.0% of the vote, 1.8 points ahead of Frédéric Côté (PQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sonia Ziadé | QLP | 11,370 | 31.0% |
| Frédéric Côté | PQ | 10,719 | 29.2% |
| Pierre Guillot-Hurtubise | CAQ | 6,087 | 16.6% |
| Marie Pelletier | PCQ | 4,989 | 13.6% |
| Francine Van Winden | QS | 3,242 | 8.8% |
| Barbara Joannette | Other | 198 | 0.5% |
| Hélène Héroux | Other | 57 | 0.2% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the Quebec Liberals favoured at 44% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Frédéric Côté (PQ) winning at 60%: it got it wrong. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| QLP | 25.9% | 31.0% | +5.1 |
| PQ | 24.4% | 29.2% | +4.9 |
| CAQ | 22.0% | 16.6% | −5.4 |
| PCQ | 18.1% | 13.6% | −4.5 |
| QS | 8.8% | 8.8% | +0.1 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 40% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 29.0% Rank 14 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 40% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +6% 2022: 27.4% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here less than across Quebec (increase ranked 85 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a weaker-than-expected rise mostly signalled lower overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (72.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| QLP | PQ | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| La Prairie | 25.9% | 24.4% | 22.0% | 18.1% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 24.8%+1.2 | 28.7%−4.3 | 13.9%+8.1 | 20.2%−2.1 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 38.9 points, with 72.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the Quebec Liberals ahead by 6.2 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Christian Dubé Elected | CAQ | 18,229 | 52.7 |
| Julie Guertin | QLP | 4,791 | 13.9 |
| Pierre-Marc Allaire-Daly | QS | 4,531 | 13.1 |
| Sarah Joly-Simard | PQ | 3,950 | 11.4 |
| Marie Pelletier | PCQ | 2,751 | 8.0 |
| Barbara Joannette | Other | 281 | 0.8 |
| Normand Chouinard | Other | 50 | 0.1 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Verdun QLP, safe seat
- Sanguinet PQ, competitive
- Pierre-Laporte QLP, competitive
- La Pinière QLP, safe seat
- Saint-Henri–Sainte-Anne QLP, safe seat
- Sainte-Marie-Saint-Jacques QS, competitive
- Forecast updated