Laviolette–Saint-Maurice
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (Parti Québécois) wins with 31.4% of the vote, 4.0 points ahead of Charles Paquin (PCQ).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Élodie Murphy-Gauthier | PQ | 12,142 | 31.4% |
| Charles Paquin | PCQ | 10,611 | 27.4% |
| Laurent Bélisle | QLP | 6,620 | 17.1% |
| Guy Veillette | CAQ | 6,056 | 15.6% |
| Rébéka Frédette | QS | 2,644 | 6.8% |
| Hugo Laperrière Piché | Other | 313 | 0.8% |
| Jean-Patrick Berthiaume | Other | 212 | 0.6% |
| Stéphane Gélinas | Other | 135 | 0.3% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 75% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Élodie Murphy-Gauthier (PQ) winning at 82%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 32.3% | 31.4% | −1.0 |
| PCQ | 26.5% | 27.4% | +0.9 |
| QLP | 13.4% | 17.1% | +3.7 |
| CAQ | 20.0% | 15.6% | −4.3 |
| QS | 6.9% | 6.8% | −0.1 |
| Other | 0.9% | 1.7% | +0.8 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 39% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 25.2% Rank 43 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 39% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +13% 2022: 22.4% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here about as much as across Quebec.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (64.0%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | PCQ | CAQ | QLP | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Laviolette–Saint-Maurice | 32.3% | 26.5% | 20.0% | 13.4% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+3.6 | 20.2%+6.3 | 13.9%+6.1 | 24.8%−11.3 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 35.0 points, with 64.0% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 7.4 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Louise Tardif Elected | CAQ | 19,418 | 51.7 |
| Pierre-David Tremblay | PCQ | 6,287 | 16.7 |
| Pascal Bastarache | PQ | 6,010 | 16.0 |
| France Lavigne | QS | 3,568 | 9.5 |
| Kévin Nzoula-Mendome | QLP | 1,875 | 5.0 |
| Jean-Patrick Berthiaume | Other | 137 | 0.4 |
| Raoul Parent | Other | 126 | 0.3 |
| Josée St-Georges | Other | 122 | 0.3 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Berthier PQ, safe seat
- Maskinongé PQ, toss-up
- Champlain PCQ, toss-up
- Trois-Rivières PQ, toss-up
- Joliette PQ, safe seat
- Richelieu PQ, safe seat
- Forecast updated