Groulx
Provincial riding · Quebec
October 5, 2026 result
Marie-Claude Sarrazin (Parti Québécois) wins with 32.2% of the vote, 8.6 points ahead of Julie Tourangeau (QLP).
| Candidate | Party | Votes | Share |
|---|---|---|---|
| Marie-Claude Sarrazin | PQ | 11,742 | 32.2% |
| Julie Tourangeau | QLP | 8,621 | 23.6% |
| Eric Girard | CAQ | 6,473 | 17.7% |
| Ariane Desrochers | PCQ | 5,284 | 14.5% |
| Marie-Noëlle Aubertin | QS | 4,052 | 11.1% |
| Samuel Beauchamp | Other | 333 | 0.9% |
Our forecast before the vote
We had the PQ favoured at 78% (forecast of October 4, 2026): the call held.
On the eve of the vote, the Polymarket market had Marie-Claude Sarrazin (PQ) winning at 81%: it got it right. Polymarket
| Party | Forecast | Result | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| PQ | 31.6% | 32.2% | +0.6 |
| QLP | 20.9% | 23.6% | +2.8 |
| CAQ | 18.2% | 17.7% | −0.5 |
| PCQ | 17.0% | 14.5% | −2.5 |
| QS | 11.3% | 11.1% | −0.2 |
| Other | 1.0% | 0.9% | −0.1 |
Next general election scheduled for October 7, 2030.
Advance voting · September 27 and 28
About 37% of votes were cast in advance
- Registered electors who voted
- 25.2% Rank 42 of 127
- Quebec average
- 23.6%
- Estimated share of votes already cast
- ≈ 37% Quebec: about 36%
- Compared with 2022
- +4% 2022: 24.2% · Quebec: +12%
Compared with 2022, advance voting rose here less than across Quebec (increase ranked 95 of 108 comparable ridings). In past elections, a weaker-than-expected rise mostly signalled lower overall turnout, not a winner.
Preliminary data from Élections Québec, subject to revision. The estimated share divides the rate by the riding's 2022 turnout (68.5%). See all 127 ridings
Compared with the average
| PQ | QLP | CAQ | PCQ | |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Groulx | 31.6% | 20.9% | 18.2% | 17.0% |
| Provincial averageQuebec | 28.7%+2.9 | 24.8%−3.9 | 13.9%+4.3 | 20.2%−3.2 |
Simple average of the 127 ridings, not weighted by population.
Projection track
How the projection has moved
Previous election (2022)
The CAQ won by 31.5 points, with 68.5% turnout.
Our current projection: the PQ ahead by 9.0 points.
Candidates and votes in 2022
| Candidate | Party | Votes | % |
|---|---|---|---|
| Eric Girard Elected | CAQ | 17,431 | 47.8 |
| Marie-Noëlle Aubertin | QS | 5,919 | 16.2 |
| Jeanne Craig-Larouche | PQ | 5,588 | 15.3 |
| Audrey Medaino-Tardif | QLP | 4,024 | 11.0 |
| Valerie Messore | PCQ | 3,177 | 8.7 |
| Victoria Shahsavar-Arshad | Other | 368 | 1.0 |
Nearby ridings
Party ahead and how sure the projection is.
- Blainville PQ, toss-up
- Sainte-Rose QLP, safe seat
- Fabre QLP, safe seat
- Deux-Montagnes PQ, competitive
- Vimont-Auteuil QLP, safe seat
- Les Plaines PQ, competitive
- Forecast updated