U.S. Governors
Democratic leads in 21 of 36 governor races; 19 have no incumbent running.
Seat forecast
| Party | Projected seats | Range | Chance of a majority |
|---|---|---|---|
| Democratic | 26 | 23–30 | 60% |
| Republican | 24 | 20–27 | 27% |
26 seats for a majority, out of 50 · 480 polls, 50,000 simulations
Watch list
The tightest races
The smallest projected gaps between the top two.
Current Split of the 50 Governorships
Seats — 50 total
- Republican 26
- Democratic 24
Prediction markets · Kalshi
What Kalshi traders are paying
Live prices from the Kalshi elections exchange, shown beside our projection. These prices do not enter our projection.
Most governorships after the midterms
US$57K open interest- Democrats76%
- Republicans20%
- Tie, 25-256.9%
Kalshi prices as of October 23, 2026 · Probability implied by the last traded price, or the midpoint between bid and ask when a contract has not traded.
Analysis
Vote intention
Raw polls (dots) and model estimate (diamonds) with 95% confidence interval.
Scenario probabilities
Across 50,000 simulations of the election.
State map
Colour shows the leading party; the shade, how settled the race is.
All races
All 36 races, sortable by leading party, margin and chance.
| Race | State | Leading | Vote | Margin | Chance | vs 2022 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ohio | OH | Democratic | 49.7% | 4.6 pts | 59% | Republican → Democratic |
| Georgia | GA | Democratic | 50.0% | 4.7 pts | 52% | Republican → Democratic |
| Texas | TX | Republican | 50.7% | 4.9 pts | 70% | Hold |
| Florida | FL | Republican | 51.9% | 5.7 pts | 79% | Hold |
| Nevada | NV | Democratic | 47.3% | 5.7 pts | 53% | Republican → Democratic |
| Alaska | AK | Republican | 49.9% | 5.7 pts | 52% | Hold |
| Kansas | KS | Republican | 51.8% | 5.9 pts | 75% | Democratic → Republican |
| Wisconsin | WI | Democratic | 51.7% | 6.1 pts | 72% | Hold |
| Iowa | IA | Democratic | 52.3% | 6.2 pts | 83% | Republican → Democratic |
| Oregon | OR | Democratic | 50.3% | 6.4 pts | 78% | Hold |
| Michigan | MI | Democratic | 52.3% | 7.3 pts | 89% | Hold |
| New Hampshire | NH | Republican | 53.0% | 7.5 pts | 88% | Hold |
| Nebraska | NE | Republican | 50.8% | 8.0 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Minnesota | MN | Democratic | 53.5% | 9.0 pts | 92% | Hold |
| New Mexico | NM | Democratic | 54.0% | 9.1 pts | 90% | Hold |
| Arizona | AZ | Democratic | 54.0% | 10.5 pts | 94% | Hold |
| South Carolina | SC | Republican | 52.8% | 10.6 pts | 92% | Hold |
| Maine | ME | Democratic | 52.2% | 12.0 pts | 98% | Hold |
| New York | NY | Democratic | 56.3% | 13.0 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Alabama | AL | Republican | 57.3% | 15.2 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Oklahoma | OK | Republican | 57.3% | 15.5 pts | 96% | Hold |
| Rhode Island | RI | Democratic | 46.8% | 16.0 pts | 95% | Hold |
| Colorado | CO | Democratic | 57.7% | 16.2 pts | 96% | Hold |
| Vermont | VT | Republican | 57.5% | 16.7 pts | 97% | Hold |
| Tennessee | TN | Republican | 51.9% | 16.7 pts | 99% | Hold |
| South Dakota | SD | Republican | 58.3% | 17.0 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Illinois | IL | Democratic | 59.1% | 19.4 pts | 99% | Hold |
| Arkansas | AR | Republican | 54.3% | 19.6 pts | 98% | Hold |
| Connecticut | CT | Democratic | 60.4% | 21.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| California | CA | Democratic | 60.8% | 22.0 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Pennsylvania | PA | Democratic | 61.3% | 23.2 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Massachusetts | MA | Democratic | 61.5% | 25.8 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Idaho | ID | Republican | 58.6% | 28.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Hawaii | HI | Democratic | 67.0% | 34.3 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Maryland | MD | Democratic | 64.5% | 34.6 pts | >99% | Hold |
| Wyoming | WY | Republican | 63.7% | 37.5 pts | >99% | Hold |
Half of these seats have no incumbent. Does the state’s partisan lean take over?
About half of the 36 governor races have no incumbent running. Where a governor is running, their last result predicts the race well; where the seat is open, the state’s presidential lean matters much more.
How we got here
Governors outrun their state’s partisan lean routinely: Phil Scott took 73% of a state that votes Democratic by 17 points, Mark Gordon 74% of Wyoming. Those margins belong to the person, not the party, and they do not transfer to a successor.
Vote-Scope measured that split on the 2022 cycle rather than assuming it. Races with an incumbent on the ballot are anchored on the previous result; open seats are anchored on the Cook PVI. Cross-validated, each anchor beats the other by roughly two to one in its own regime.
What can still change the race
- Whether nominees in open seats consolidate their party’s usual coalition or underperform it.
- A sustained move in the national generic ballot, which governor races absorb at roughly 72%.
- Independent candidacies that stay on the ballot through November rather than fading after the primaries.