Alaska

Governor’s race · Alaska

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 52% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 49.9%
Democrat 49.7%

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Alaska	49.9%	49.7%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.9%+3.0	49.5%+0.2	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

13 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Alaska Survey Research	15–Oct 18, 2026	1,568	likely voters	Democrat 50 Republican 50	See the poll
Data For Progress	8–Oct 16, 2026	629	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 49	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	1–Oct 3, 2026	1,512	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 46	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	431	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 48	See the poll
Co/Efficient	14–Sep 17, 2026	799	likely voters	Democrat 43 Republican 43	See the poll
Fabrizio Ward/Impact Research AARP	8–Sep 11, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 41 Democrat 40	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	Jun 30, 2026 – Jul 1, 2026	—	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 38 Independent and others 11	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	16–Apr 19, 2026	—	likely voters	Republican 59 Democrat 41	See the poll
Lake Research Partners	5–Feb 11, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 38 Republican 37	See the poll
Data For Progress	17–Oct 23, 2025	582	likely voters	Republican 43 Democrat 41	See the poll
Alaska Survey Research	10–Oct 14, 2025	1,748	likely voters	Republican 59 Democrat 41	See the poll
Data For Progress	21–Jul 27, 2025	491	likely voters	Democrat 55 Republican 45	See the poll
Data For Progress	Feb 28, 2025 – Mar 7, 2025	1,008	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 34	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Mike Dunleavy · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins
source
Republican Open seat

Bernadette Wilson
source
Republican Open seat

Dave Bronson
source
Republican Open seat

Treg Taylor
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 30.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026