Kansas

Governor’s race · Kansas

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 75% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.9 points.

Competitive. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 50%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 51.8%

Ty Masterson
Democrat 47.9%

Cindy Holscher

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Kansas	51.8%	47.9%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.9%+4.8	49.5%−1.6	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

6 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Yougov	Sep 24, 2026 – Oct 4, 2026	2,252	likely voters	Republican 47 Democrat 44	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University	22–Sep 30, 2026	605	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 44	See the poll
Emerson College Nexstar	15–Sep 16, 2026	750	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 44	See the poll
Global Strategy Group Democratic Attorneys General Association	13–Sep 16, 2026	800	likely voters	Democrat 49 Republican 46	See the poll
Co/Efficient	8–Sep 10, 2026	915	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 43	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	13–Aug 16, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 47 Republican 46	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Laura Kelly · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Cindy Holscher
source
Republican Open seat

Ty Masterson
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 2.2 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 5.9 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026