Nevada

Governor’s race · Nevada

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a 53% chance of winning, with an average lead of 5.7 points.

Toss-up. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 53%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 47.3%

Aaron Ford
Republican 46.8%

Joe Lombardo, incumbent
Other 6.0%

Danielle Ford Independent

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Nevada	47.3%	46.8%	6.0%
National averageUnited States	49.5%−2.2	46.9%−0.2	3.6%+2.4

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

11 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Noble Predictive Insights	22–Sep 26, 2026	800	registered voters	Republican 42 Democrat 40	See the poll
Emerson College KLAS-TV Las Vegas	5–Sep 8, 2026	680	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 42	See the poll
Tarrance Group Better Nevada PAC \| Republican Governors Association	25–Jul 29, 2026	550	likely voters	Republican 50 Democrat 43	See the poll
Public Policy Polling Democratic Governors Association	15–Jul 16, 2026	558	likely voters	Democrat 44 Republican 44	See the poll
Grassroots Targeting Better Nevada PAC \| Republican Governors Association	8–Jul 16, 2026	2,500	likely voters	Republican 52 Democrat 40	See the poll
Public Opinion Strategies Republican Governors Association	27–Jun 29, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 51 Democrat 42	See the poll
Global Strategy Group	5–May 11, 2026	700	likely voters	Republican 45 Democrat 42	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	10–Mar 13, 2026	845	registered voters	Republican 39 Democrat 38	See the poll
Hart Research Associates The Majority Institute	11–Feb 17, 2026	800	likely voters	Republican 46 Democrat 43	See the poll
Emerson College	16–Nov 18, 2025	800	registered voters	Democrat 41 Republican 41	See the poll
Noble Predictive Insights	7–Oct 13, 2025	766	registered voters	Republican 40 Democrat 37	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Joe Lombardo · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Republican Incumbent

Joe Lombardo
source
Democrat Challenger

Aaron Ford
source
Other Challenger

Danielle Ford
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 1.5 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 5.7 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up
Kansas Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026