Oklahoma

Governor’s race · Oklahoma

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Republicans a 96% chance of winning, with an average lead of 15.5 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: 10%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Republican 57.3%

Mike Mazzei
Democrat 42.3%

Cyndi Munson

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Republican	Democrat	Other
Oklahoma	57.3%	42.3%	0.4%
National averageUnited States	46.9%+10.4	49.5%−7.2	3.6%−3.2

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

1 poll

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source	Image
Workbench Strategy	8–Oct 13, 2026	600	likely voters	Republican 49 Democrat 45	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Kevin Stitt · Republican

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Open seat

Cyndi Munson
source
Other Open seat

Jerry Griffin
source
Other Open seat

Orlando Bush
source
Other Open seat

Robert Brooks Sr.
source
Republican Open seat

Mike Mazzei
source

Previous election (2022)

The Republicans won by 13.6 points.

Our current projection: the Republicans ahead by 15.5 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026