2026 Election Odds: Kalshi vs Polymarket vs Our Forecast

Who will control Congress?

Probability of a Democratic win. The dotted line is 50%.

Senate control (Democratic)

Vote-Scope (ours) 65.8%
Kalshi 61.8%
Polymarket 63.5%

House control (Democratic)

Vote-Scope (ours) 96.4%
Kalshi 91%
Polymarket 90.5%

Most governorships (Democratic)

Vote-Scope (ours) 60.9%
Kalshi 63.6%

Where we disagree most with the markets

Each row: our probability of a Democratic win (black dot) and the market’s (hatched dot). The longer the line, the bigger the disagreement.

CO-3House of Representatives 67.5% · Kalshi 29.7% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 37.8 pts
AlaskaSenate 36.6% · Kalshi 74% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 37.4 pts
TX-15House of Representatives 50.6% · Kalshi 83.8% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 33.2 pts
AlaskaGovernors 54.7% · Kalshi 79% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 24.3 pts
AZ-2House of Representatives 48% · Kalshi 23.8% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 24.2 pts
NC-11House of Representatives 53.1% · Kalshi 76.7% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 23.6 pts
FL-11House of Representatives 30.1% · Polymarket 8.5% We are more Democratic than Polymarket by 21.6 pts
VermontGovernors 2.7% · Kalshi 23.8% We are more Republican than Kalshi by 21.1 pts
South CarolinaSenate 34.6% · Kalshi 15% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 19.6 pts
FL-16House of Representatives 36.4% · Polymarket 17% We are more Democratic than Polymarket by 19.4 pts
ME-2House of Representatives 55% · Kalshi 35.6% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 19.4 pts
FL-13House of Representatives 43.6% · Kalshi 24.5% We are more Democratic than Kalshi by 19.1 pts

Every race with odds

Senate · 35

Race	Vote-Scope	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Alaska	36.6%	74%	—	−37.4
South Carolina	34.6%	15%	15.5%	+19.6
Mississippi	29.2%	10.8%	9.5%	+18.4
Montana	14.3%	0.4%	0.5%	+13.9
Kansas	48.8%	35%	36.5%	+13.8
Iowa	53.8%	42%	41.5%	+11.8
Michigan	78.9%	69%	70.5%	+9.9
Nebraska	9.6%	0.5%	0.1%	+9.1
New Hampshire	95.7%	89%	88.5%	+6.7
Arkansas	0.3%	6.4%	5.6%	−6.1
Tennessee	0.7%	5%	4.2%	−4.3
Ohio	63.9%	59.8%	61.5%	+4.1
Texas	57.6%	61.4%	62.5%	−3.8
Virginia	93.5%	97.3%	97.7%	−3.8
Kentucky	7.2%	3.8%	3.3%	+3.4
Massachusetts	99.8%	96.7%	98.4%	+3.1
New Jersey	99.3%	96.3%	97.2%	+3
Minnesota	84.2%	87%	87.5%	−2.8
West Virginia	0.1%	2.1%	1.1%	−2
Colorado	97%	98.7%	98.4%	−1.7
Oregon	99.5%	97.8%	97.9%	+1.7
Oklahoma	0.8%	2.5%	1.9%	−1.7
North Carolina	92.9%	94.5%	95.8%	−1.6
Maine	57.5%	56%	59.5%	+1.5
Florida	10%	8.5%	9%	+1.5
New Mexico	98.5%	97.3%	97.2%	+1.2
Wyoming	0%	1.1%	1.4%	−1.1
Delaware	99.8%	98.8%	97.4%	+1
Georgia	94.1%	95.1%	96.2%	−1
Illinois	97.7%	97.1%	98.2%	+0.6
Louisiana	6.3%	6.9%	6.5%	−0.6
Rhode Island	100%	99.4%	98.8%	+0.6
Idaho	0.1%	0.6%	0.1%	−0.5
South Dakota	0%	0.1%	0.1%	−0.1
Alabama	2.7%	2.8%	1.9%	−0.1

Governors · 36

Race	Vote-Scope	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
Alaska	54.7%	79%	—	−24.3
Vermont	2.7%	23.8%	24.6%	−21.1
Ohio	55.6%	71.6%	72%	−16
Texas	33.2%	23.8%	22.5%	+9.4
Oklahoma	0.6%	9.7%	8.5%	−9.1
Iowa	80.9%	89.1%	89%	−8.2
South Carolina	13.7%	5.9%	4.8%	+7.8
Wisconsin	73.2%	80.2%	80.5%	−7
Maine	98%	91.2%	95.3%	+6.8
New Hampshire	11.7%	—	5.5%	+6.2
Arizona	94.3%	88.2%	88.5%	+6.1
Tennessee	1.4%	6.9%	6.2%	−5.5
Alabama	3.2%	8.3%	6%	−5.1
Massachusetts	99.9%	94.9%	95.9%	+5
New York	98.9%	93.9%	95%	+5
Arkansas	5.7%	1.6%	2.2%	+4.1
California	99.8%	96%	—	+3.8
Connecticut	99.5%	95.9%	96.8%	+3.6
Maryland	99.9%	96.7%	97.8%	+3.2
Hawaii	99.9%	97%	99.2%	+2.9
Oregon	77.2%	74.3%	75.5%	+2.9
Nebraska	6.6%	9.4%	9.5%	−2.8
Illinois	98.4%	96.2%	97.9%	+2.2
Michigan	91.1%	93.3%	94.5%	−2.2
Idaho	0.3%	2.5%	2.1%	−2.2
Wyoming	0%	2.1%	1.2%	−2.1
Rhode Island	91.7%	93.6%	96.5%	−1.9
Pennsylvania	99.9%	98.1%	98%	+1.8
Nevada	55.8%	54%	52.5%	+1.8
Georgia	46.3%	47.5%	50.5%	−1.2
Minnesota	93.3%	94.5%	95.5%	−1.2
Kansas	23.8%	—	23%	+0.8
South Dakota	1.9%	1.1%	1.7%	+0.8
Florida	21.5%	21%	20.5%	+0.5
New Mexico	91.4%	91.7%	95%	−0.3
Colorado	96.1%	96.1%	96.8%	0

Show all 204 House districts

Race	Vote-Scope	Kalshi	Polymarket	Gap
CO-3	67.5%	29.7%	—	+37.8
TX-15	50.6%	83.8%	82.5%	−33.2
AZ-2	48%	23.8%	—	+24.2
NC-11	53.1%	76.7%	76.5%	−23.6
FL-11	30.1%	—	8.5%	+21.6
FL-16	36.4%	—	17%	+19.4
ME-2	55%	35.6%	—	+19.4
FL-13	43.6%	24.5%	26.5%	+19.1
NJ-7	73%	91%	—	−18
TX-35	44.6%	62.2%	59.5%	−17.6
FL-27	17.5%	—	34%	−16.5
VA-2	72.1%	86.9%	—	−14.8
OH-15	39.6%	—	25%	+14.6
MT-1	42.2%	28.7%	—	+13.5
FL-25	66%	—	79.5%	−13.5
NC-14	21.1%	—	9%	+12.1
FL-14	79.4%	—	67.5%	+11.9
NY-17	71.1%	59.2%	59.5%	+11.9
VA-1	42.4%	54%	—	−11.6
CA-22	76.5%	88.1%	—	−11.6
WI-1	47.8%	37.3%	—	+10.5
TX-38	13.3%	—	3%	+10.3
TX-34	73.9%	84.2%	83.5%	−10.3
NV-4	99.4%	90.5%	—	+8.9
PA-8	82%	73.3%	—	+8.7
FL-18	15.2%	—	6.5%	+8.7
MI-7	70.5%	62.4%	—	+8.1
NY-3	99%	90.9%	—	+8.1
NC-13	19.1%	—	12%	+7.1
NY-4	98.8%	92.1%	—	+6.7
GA-11	9.3%	—	3.1%	+6.2
FL-23	99.5%	93.5%	95.9%	+6
GA-10	8.1%	—	2.1%	+6
MI-4	42%	48%	—	−6
TX-22	10.4%	—	4.5%	+5.9
NV-1	99.3%	93.5%	—	+5.8
CO-8	77.6%	83.2%	—	−5.6
TX-21	9.6%	—	4%	+5.6
FL-26	5%	—	10.5%	−5.5
FL-15	9.4%	—	4%	+5.4
NY-22	99.6%	94.4%	94.5%	+5.2
WI-3	79.1%	74%	—	+5.1
MN-2	96.7%	91.7%	—	+5
NC-10	9.8%	—	5%	+4.8
TX-10	12.3%	—	7.5%	+4.8
AK-AL	5.7%	0.9%	2.2%	+4.8
CA-23	6.5%	—	1.8%	+4.7
CA-33	99.9%	—	95.3%	+4.6
NV-3	97.7%	93.1%	—	+4.6
MI-3	99.7%	95.3%	—	+4.4
MI-10	68.8%	64.4%	64.5%	+4.4
CA-30	100%	—	95.7%	+4.3
CA-43	100%	—	95.7%	+4.3
NJ-11	99.8%	—	95.5%	+4.3
MI-11	99.9%	—	95.8%	+4.1
TX-23	35.6%	—	31.5%	+4.1
FL-24	100%	—	96%	+4
FL-28	1.5%	—	5.5%	−4
IL-14	99.7%	—	95.7%	+4
OH-12	0.5%	—	4.5%	−4
CA-21	98.5%	94.6%	96.2%	+3.9
CA-46	100%	—	96.1%	+3.9
OH-9	74.2%	70.3%	—	+3.9
TX-20	100%	—	96.1%	+3.9
VA-10	98.6%	94.7%	96.9%	+3.9
IL-13	99.9%	—	96.1%	+3.8
OH-10	11.7%	—	15.5%	−3.8
TX-12	1.7%	—	5.5%	−3.8
AZ-6	80%	83.8%	—	−3.8
CA-25	99.7%	—	95.9%	+3.8
CA-29	100%	—	96.2%	+3.8
CA-32	100%	—	96.2%	+3.8
CA-51	99.8%	—	96%	+3.8
CA-52	100%	—	96.2%	+3.8
IL-11	99.8%	—	96%	+3.8
NM-2	94.1%	90.3%	—	+3.8
CA-26	99.7%	—	96%	+3.7
CA-42	99.7%	—	96%	+3.7
FL-22	50.8%	—	54.5%	−3.7
NY-18	99.5%	95.8%	95.5%	+3.7
CA-50	99.9%	—	96.3%	+3.6
TX-25	5.5%	—	1.9%	+3.6
CA-31	99.5%	—	95.9%	+3.6
IL-16	6.4%	—	2.9%	+3.5
CA-10	100%	—	96.5%	+3.5
CA-13	97.1%	93.6%	95.8%	+3.5
IL-15	0.1%	—	3.6%	−3.5
IA-3	75.7%	79.2%	—	−3.5
NY-13	100%	—	96.5%	+3.5
PA-15	0%	—	3.5%	−3.5
PA-17	99.4%	95.9%	96.4%	+3.5
CT-5	98.5%	95.1%	—	+3.4
NJ-12	100%	—	96.6%	+3.4
TX-9	13.3%	16.7%	—	−3.4
CA-37	100%	—	96.7%	+3.3
NE-2	96%	92.7%	—	+3.3
NY-14	100%	—	96.7%	+3.3
IL-17	99.5%	96.3%	96.8%	+3.2
NY-26	100%	—	96.8%	+3.2
VA-11	100%	—	96.8%	+3.2
PA-1	33.5%	36.6%	—	−3.1
PA-11	1.8%	—	4.9%	−3.1
IL-10	100%	—	96.9%	+3.1
CA-27	99%	96%	—	+3
GA-14	1.3%	—	4.3%	−3
TX-28	87.9%	90.9%	91.5%	−3
CA-45	96%	93.1%	94.5%	+2.9
IN-7	100%	97.1%	—	+2.9
MO-5	100%	97.1%	—	+2.9
TX-24	9.4%	—	6.5%	+2.9
PA-16	1.1%	—	4%	−2.9
TX-14	5%	—	2.1%	+2.9
NY-21	21.1%	—	24%	−2.9
FL-19	1.7%	—	4.5%	−2.8
CA-16	100%	—	97.2%	+2.8
CA-36	100%	—	97.2%	+2.8
NY-20	100%	—	97.2%	+2.8
PA-7	84.2%	87%	—	−2.8
TX-30	100%	—	97.2%	+2.8
CA-28	100%	—	97.3%	+2.7
NJ-9	98.7%	96%	—	+2.7
NY-25	99.9%	—	97.2%	+2.7
TX-27	7%	—	4.3%	+2.7
CA-41	99.7%	97.1%	96%	+2.6
ND-AL	0%	—	2.6%	−2.6
CA-15	100%	—	97.4%	+2.6
NY-12	100%	—	97.4%	+2.6
NY-16	100%	—	97.5%	+2.5
NC-12	100%	—	97.5%	+2.5
TX-33	100%	—	97.5%	+2.5
WY-AL	0%	—	2.5%	−2.5
UT-1	100%	97.6%	—	+2.4
TX-16	99.9%	—	97.6%	+2.3
GA-12	6.7%	—	9%	−2.3
CA-44	100%	—	97.7%	+2.3
FL-20	100%	—	97.7%	+2.3
IN-1	99.5%	97.2%	—	+2.3
TX-29	100%	—	97.7%	+2.3
TX-37	100%	—	97.7%	+2.3
CA-12	100%	—	97.8%	+2.2
TX-31	2.3%	—	4.5%	−2.2
CA-24	100%	—	97.9%	+2.1
NH-1	91.9%	94%	—	−2.1
NY-10	100%	—	97.9%	+2.1
NY-15	100%	—	97.9%	+2.1
NY-19	96.7%	98.8%	97.2%	−2.1
CA-34	100%	—	98%	+2
CA-48	91.5%	—	93.5%	−2
FL-10	100%	—	98%	+2
MI-12	100%	—	98%	+2
MI-13	100%	—	98%	+2
FL-12	8.6%	—	10.5%	−1.9
IL-12	0%	—	1.9%	−1.9
PA-13	0%	—	1.9%	−1.9
SD-AL	1.6%	—	3.5%	−1.9
PA-14	0.3%	—	2.1%	−1.8
PA-12	99.8%	—	98%	+1.8
VT-AL	100%	—	98.2%	+1.8
CA-18	100%	—	98.3%	+1.7
DE-AL	99.9%	—	98.2%	+1.7
OR-5	97.8%	96.1%	—	+1.7
NY-24	4.5%	—	2.8%	+1.7
TX-13	0.1%	—	1.8%	−1.7
UT-3	0.1%	1.8%	—	−1.7
MI-8	99.2%	97.6%	—	+1.6
CA-11	100%	—	98.5%	+1.5
CA-17	100%	—	98.5%	+1.5
CA-38	99.4%	—	97.9%	+1.5
GA-13	100%	—	98.5%	+1.5
NJ-10	100%	—	98.5%	+1.5
TX-11	0.4%	—	1.9%	−1.5
TX-32	13.5%	12%	11.3%	+1.5
CA-19	100%	—	98.6%	+1.4
CA-39	99.5%	—	98.1%	+1.4
TX-18	100%	—	98.6%	+1.4
WA-10	100%	—	98.6%	+1.4
CA-20	0.7%	—	2.1%	−1.4
FL-21	5.4%	—	6.8%	−1.4
NJ-5	99.8%	98.4%	—	+1.4
OH-13	97.6%	98.9%	95.8%	−1.3
CA-3	99.1%	97.8%	—	+1.3
CA-35	99.6%	—	98.3%	+1.3
FL-17	3.3%	—	4.5%	−1.2
OH-11	100%	—	98.9%	+1.1
AZ-1	80.6%	81.6%	—	−1
NY-23	3.2%	—	2.2%	+1
OH-1	88.2%	89.2%	—	−1
TX-36	2.5%	—	3.5%	−1
VA-7	97.5%	96.6%	—	+0.9
WA-8	99.5%	98.6%	—	+0.9
WA-3	89.7%	90.6%	—	−0.9
TX-19	0%	—	0.8%	−0.8
CA-49	99.1%	98.3%	95.5%	+0.8
IA-1	87.5%	88.3%	—	−0.8
NY-11	5.2%	—	4.5%	+0.7
CA-9	99.8%	99.2%	—	+0.6
CA-14	100%	—	99.4%	+0.6
NC-1	66.4%	67%	—	−0.6
PA-10	81%	80.4%	80.5%	+0.6
CA-47	99%	98.5%	97%	+0.5
UT-2	3.2%	3.7%	—	−0.5
TX-26	2.5%	—	2.9%	−0.4
OH-14	1.5%	—	1.6%	−0.1
TX-17	4.5%	—	4.5%	0

Probability of a Democratic win. Kalshi: prices renormalized across outcomes; Polymarket: last traded price. Races with no money at stake are left out.