Who else forecasts the 2026 Senate, and where do they stand?

Chance that Democrats control it, side by side

Each bar is one forecaster’s published probability. The dotted line is 50%.

• Vote-Scope (ours) 65.8%
• Silver Bulletin (FLIPR) 65.0%
• Polymarket 63.5%
• Kalshi 61.8%
• ElectIndex 61.0%
• The Economist 60.0%
• The Economist 57.0%
• Decision Desk HQ 56.0%

How solid the races are

Races sorted from solid Democratic to solid Republican. Ours in seven levels; expert ratings as published.

• Solid D
• Likely D
• Lean D
• Toss-up
• Lean R
• Likely R
• Solid R

• Vote-Scope (ours) 35 races · as of October 15, 2026 9 3 8 3 9
• Decision Desk HQ 35 races · as of October 5, 2026 9 4 4 5 9
• Cook Political Report 35 races · as of September 23, 2026 9 7 13
• Inside Elections 35 races · as of October 1, 2026 9 4 4 3 13

What the other forecasters currently say

Each one’s own published headline figure, attributed and linked. We report what they publish; none of it enters our model, and we reproduce none of their underlying data.

Prediction markets

• Kalshi 61.8% Gap vs Vote-Scope +4.0 · as of October 15, 2026 · was 62.6% on October 14, 2026
• Polymarket 63.5% Gap vs Vote-Scope +2.3 · as of October 15, 2026 · was 63.5% on October 15, 2026

Other forecasts worth checking

They publish a forecast too. Their numbers are not carried here; follow the link.

• Race to the WH
• VoteHub
• FiftyPlusOne
• Split Ticket (The Argument)
• Theo Elections
• Call the Map
• Sabato's Crystal Ball
• Fox News Power Rankings
• 270toWin