Pennsylvania

Governor’s race · Pennsylvania

Election day November 3, 2026 · forecast of October 23, 2026

Our forecast gives the Democrats a more than 99% chance of winning, with an average lead of 23.2 points.

Safe seat. Chance of a final gap under 5 points: under 1%.

Projected vote share

Projection by party

Democrat 61.3%

Josh Shapiro, incumbent
Republican 38.1%

Stacy Garrity
Other 0.6%

Ken Krawchuk Libertarian

Thin vertical mark: 2022 result.

Compared with the average

	Democrat	Republican	Other
Pennsylvania	61.3%	38.1%	0.6%
National averageUnited States	49.5%+11.8	46.9%−8.8	3.6%−3.0

Simple average of the 36 state races, not weighted by population.

Projection track

How the projection has moved

Polls in this district

22 polls

Pollster	Field dates	Sample	Population	Topline	Source
Activote	1–Oct 21, 2026	400	likely voters	Democrat 62 Republican 39	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	7–Oct 18, 2026	808	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 33	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	5–Oct 11, 2026	628	registered voters	Democrat 58 Republican 28	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	1–Oct 5, 2026	1,159	likely voters	Democrat 59 Republican 34	See the poll
Z To A Research Rust Belt Rising	Sep 28, 2026 – Oct 1, 2026	630	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 34	See the poll
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	22–Sep 30, 2026	700	likely voters	Democrat 52 Republican 31	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	15–Sep 22, 2026	615	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 38	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	16–Sep 22, 2026	624	registered voters	Democrat 55 Republican 28	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	17–Aug 23, 2026	501	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 25	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	18–Aug 22, 2026	711	likely voters	Democrat 56 Republican 25	See the poll
The New York Times/Siena University The Philadelphia Inquirer	17–Aug 21, 2026	760	registered voters	Democrat 54 Republican 37	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	17–Jul 24, 2026	630	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 28	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	9–Jul 13, 2026	895	registered voters	Democrat 53 Republican 40	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	18–Jun 25, 2026	644	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 29	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	8–Jun 14, 2026	546	registered voters	Democrat 50 Republican 28	See the poll
Mad Global Strategy Natural Allies for a Clean Energy Future	9–Jun 11, 2026	600	likely voters	Democrat 48 Republican 31	See the poll
Bravo Group PennLive	20–May 24, 2026	684	likely voters	Democrat 53 Republican 29	See the poll
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	18–Mar 29, 2026	700	likely voters	Democrat 58 Republican 36	See the poll
Franklin & Marshall College	Feb 18, 2026 – Mar 1, 2026	834	registered voters	Democrat 48 Republican 28	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	19–Feb 23, 2026	836	registered voters	Democrat 55 Republican 37	See the poll
Quinnipiac University	25–Sep 29, 2025	1,579	registered voters	Democrat 55 Republican 39	See the poll
Susquehanna Polling & Research, Inc.	22–Sep 28, 2025	700	likely voters	Democrat 54 Republican 36	See the poll

Each poll as the pollster published it; these are not the Vote-Scope projection. When a pollster tests several ballots (with or without a given candidate), each one is shown as a scenario.

Current governor

Josh Shapiro · Democrat

Who's running

The candidates

Candidates for the upcoming election.

Democrat Incumbent

Josh Shapiro
source
Other Challenger

Ken Krawchuk
source
Republican Challenger

Stacy Garrity
source

Previous election (2022)

The Democrats won by 14.8 points.

Our current projection: the Democrats ahead by 23.2 points.

Other races to watch

Party ahead and how sure the projection is.

Ohio Democrat, toss-up
Georgia Democrat, toss-up
Texas Republican, toss-up
Florida Republican, toss-up
Nevada Democrat, toss-up
Alaska Republican, toss-up

Watch list

The tightest races

The smallest projected gaps between the top two.

Forecast updated: October 23, 2026